Research

Media

Between 2009 and 2018, Secret Agent appeared in approximately 180 media items across more than forty outlets — in English and Chinese, in print and online, on radio and television.

The coverage was almost entirely research driven. From late 2012, the monthly Secret Agent Report produced original work on subjects the property industry had left unexamined: housing styles and capital growth, street-level price variation, apartment settlement risk, orientation, noise, walkability. Journalists used it because the work was independent, the data was original, and nobody else was publishing it.

The coverage grew from a single item in 2009 to more than fifty in 2016. In 2017, Secret Agent made the decision to retreat from media commentary. The firm’s last media appearance was in January 2018. The research continued: the monthly report ran until June 2020, and the financial cycle essays followed.

What follows is the full record, presented by publication.

English-Language Coverage

The Age / Domain / SMH

• 2009 — ‘Online is the new position, position, position’ (Marika Dobbin — Paul Osborne profiled on technology platform)

• 3 December 2011 — ‘Knowledge is power when negotiating’ (Chris Tolhurst — Paul Osborne on negotiation tactics and research-backed pricing)

• 2 June 2012 — ‘Raise rent, not hackles’ (Chris Tolhurst — Paul Osborne on rental market timing and vacancy rates)

• 16 June 2012 — ‘Industrious cottages’ (Chris Tolhurst — Paul Osborne on wide-fronted cottage premiums)

• 17 June 2012 — ‘Auction Action’ (Chris Tolhurst — Paul Osborne on Fitzroy sale, $16,000/sqm record)

• 28 February 2013 — ‘Park properties prized’ (Chris Tolhurst — Secret Agent research on park-facing premiums)

• 3 March 2013 — ‘Maximise value with spaces for a car’ (David Adams — Secret Agent research on car parks across 32 suburbs)

• 7–8 June 2013 — Feature on buyer’s advocates (Paul Osborne on the advocacy industry’s future)

• 7–8 June 2013 — ‘The styles that sell’ (Chris Tolhurst — Secret Agent research classifying 2,200 sales into ten housing styles; full-page spread)

• 9–10 August 2013 — ‘Streets ahead by a long way’ / ‘Going up... and up’ (David Adams — Secret Agent streets research, two-page spread)

• August 2013 — ‘High hopes as sales go up a notch’ (Chris Tolhurst — Paul Osborne as dissenting voice)

• 15 September 2013 — Auction Action column (Stephen Cooper — Paul Osborne on scarcity)

• 17 November 2013 — ‘Streets ahead of the competition’ (David Adams — Secret Agent streets research; Coppin Grove tops at 270%)

• 2013 — ‘Red-hot demand for blue-chips’ (Chris Tolhurst — Paul Osborne on market dynamics)

• 2013 — ‘How to recognise periods of high’ / ‘Older homes can aid capital growth’ (David Adams — Secret Agent architectural styles analysis)

• Spring 2013 — Clearance rates column (Paul Osborne on the spring market)

• 2013 — ‘First homes within reach’ (Stephen Cooper — Paul Osborne mentioned)

• 9 February 2014 — ‘Historic designs hold fresh appeal’ (Chris Tolhurst — Paul Osborne on cottage premiums and Asian buyer preferences)

• April 2014 — ‘Demand slows down before break’ (Chris Tolhurst — Paul Osborne on buyer depth thinning)

• 2014 — ‘Market scores “big pass mark”’ (Paul Osborne on the young-family market in the inner north)

• 2014 — ‘Desirable properties draw bids’ (Stephen Cooper — Paul Osborne on Fitzroy valuation)

• 23 September 2015 — ‘Melbourne Metro Rail: You want our homes? Show us big dollars’ (Domain — Paul Osborne on compulsory acquisition)

• 8 November 2015 — ‘Buyers and vendors strike a balance’ (Chris Tolhurst — Secret Agent report on 22% listings spike)

• 15 February 2016 — ‘Social housing has “dramatic” effect on house prices’ (Jennifer Duke — Paul Osborne’s 2012 Richmond research cited)

• 8 March 2016 — ‘Inner city houses devalued by street noise’ (Caroline James — Secret Agent Sound Report; Jodie Walker and a Secret Agent researcher quoted)

• 3 April 2016 — ‘Those closest to sky rail may not be biggest losers’ (Christina Zhou — Paul Osborne on sky rail impact)

• 10 April 2016 — ‘Melbourne home buyers are ready to dig deep for large family homes’ (Chris Tolhurst — Paul Osborne on families in the inner ring)

• 27 May 2016 — ‘Downsizers beating families in bidding wars’ (Chris Tolhurst — Paul Osborne on downsizers)

• 6 June 2016 — ‘Melbourne’s most expensive apartments by price per square metre’ (Kirsten Robb — Secret Agent apartment research)

• 26 June 2016 — ‘Brexit impact yet to be felt in Melbourne’s auction market’ (Chris Tolhurst — Paul Osborne on Brexit)

• 27 June 2016 — ‘Foreign student visa change to boost demand for homes near primary schools’ (Michael Bleby, republished from AFR)

• 30 June 2016 — ‘How to double the value of your property’ (Chris Tolhurst — Paul Osborne on orientation, aspect, streetscape)

• 15 July 2016 — ‘Walk to work: the Melburnians ditching the suburbs’ (Katherine Townsend — Paul Osborne on the walk-to-work trend)

• 30 July 2016 — ‘Where and what type of apartments performed the best’ (Christina Zhou and Kirsten Robb — Secret Agent research cited)

• 9 August 2016 — ‘Are Melbourne replica period homes worth the investment?’ (Christina Zhou — Jodie Walker quoted)

• 5 November 2016 — ‘New Preston high school tipped to lift the suburb’s appeal’ (Felicity Marshall — Paul Osborne on gentrification)

• 1 February 2017 — ‘Taxpayers recoup $1.18 million from $1.1 billion East West Link mess’ (Simon Johanson — Paul Osborne on resale of acquired properties)

• 5 February 2017 — ‘Second time’s a charm for Melbourne property sellers’ (Chris Tolhurst — Paul Osborne on held-over properties)

• 19 February 2017 — ‘Melbourne trophy homes in demand’ (Chris Tolhurst — Paul Osborne on Brighton Golden Mile result)

• 20 March 2017 — ‘Melbourne apartments: most old stock would fail Better Apartment standards’ (Kirsten Robb — a Secret Agent researcher quoted; nine of 3,000 passed)

• 10 April 2017 — ‘Houses about the $1 million mark face highly contested auctions’ (Chris Tolhurst — Paul Osborne on the $1m–$1.5m segment)

• 11 January 2018 — ‘Melbourne’s property market set to cool’ (Jemimah Clegg — a Secret Agent team member quoted)

Australian Financial Review

• 15 September 2011 — ‘Close to the city, it pays to take the vintage option’ (Chris Tolhurst — Paul Osborne on art deco scarcity and land-to-unit ratios)

• 11–12 August 2012 — ‘How to sell in a cautious market’ (Rebecca Thistleton — Paul Osborne on auction versus private sale)

• 13 May 2013 — ‘Bitcoin moves into the neighbourhood’ (Rebecca Thistleton — Paul Osborne accepting Bitcoin)

• 8–9 June 2013 — ‘Home sales likely to keep heat this winter’ (Rebecca Thistleton — Paul Osborne on rainy-day price drops)

• 14–15 March 2014 — ‘Could you fit your life into a 33 square metre apartment?’ (Larry Schlesinger — Paul Osborne on micro-apartments)

• 21 August 2014 — ‘Landlords hit by glut of apartments’ (Michael Bleby — Paul Osborne on oversupply)

• 25 August 2014 — ‘East West Link hits property prices’ (Michael Bleby — Secret Agent modelling on tunnel impact)

• 28 February–1 March 2015 — ‘Million-dollar areas in limbo’ (Rebecca Thistleton and Lucille Keen — Paul Osborne on East West Link uncertainty)

• 4–5 September 2015 — ‘Expats zoom in on property’ (Su-Lin Tan and Larry Schlesinger — Paul Osborne on expat buyers)

• 19 October 2015 — ‘Melbourne overtakes Sydney’ (Michael Bleby — Paul Osborne on Sydney buyers moving to Melbourne)

• 24 October 2015 — ‘Buyers’ guide to a property market on the turn’ (Michael Bleby — Paul Osborne on pre-Christmas opportunities)

• 11 March 2016 — ‘Why Melbourne house prices are rising faster than anywhere else’ (Michael Bleby — Paul Osborne on proximity-driven demand)

• 29 April 2016 — ‘Low inflation could trigger drop in commercial property values’ (Larry Schlesinger — Secret Agent CPI modelling)

• 4 May 2016 — ‘Budget 2016: What they say’ (Michael Bleby — Bin Rong quoted)

• 4 May 2016 — ‘Budget 2016: Super changes and RBA rate cut to drive property’ (Michael Bleby — Paul Osborne and Bin Rong)

• 23 May 2016 — ‘Property developers risk $100,000 loss per apartment’ (Larry Schlesinger — Secret Agent report basis)

• 30 May 2016 — ‘Melbourne’s off-the-plan settlement risk to date very low: Maddocks’ (Larry Schlesinger — Secret Agent report challenged)

• 2 June 2016 — ‘Melbourne developers warn of impending economic disaster’ (Larry Schlesinger — Secret Agent modelling cited)

• 7 June 2016 — ‘Melbourne’s most expensive apartments by price per square metre’ (Kirsten Robb — Secret Agent research)

• 23 June 2016 — ‘Foreign student visa change to boost demand for homes near primary schools’ (Michael Bleby — Secret Agent report basis)

• 24 June 2016 — ‘Australian property will shake despite lower for longer rates after Brexit’ (Robert Harley et al — Secret Agent cited)

• 26 June 2016 — ‘Brexit to boost property’s safe-haven status’ (Michael Bleby — Paul Osborne on commercial sales)

• 10 February 2017 — ‘Buyer’s agents: are they worth the money?’ (Larry Schlesinger — Paul Osborne on industry quality)

The Australian

• 21–22 July 2012 — ‘Melbourne’s mix of scarcity and abundance’ (Majella Corrigan — Paul Osborne on price per square metre)

International Business Times Australia

• 23 March 2012 — ‘Australian Property Hits a New Kind of High’ (Paul Osborne quoted)

Herald Sun

• 8 June 2013 — ‘Better in brick: Style makes money’ (Nathan Mawby — Secret Agent brick versus weatherboard research)

• 17 July 2013 — ‘Median strips can add value to homes’ (Nathan Mawby — Secret Agent nature strips research)

• 31 August 2013 — ‘Election could be a win for market’ (Nathan Mawby — Paul Osborne on the federal election)

• 10 November 2013 — ‘Put the house on 53’ (Vanessa Desloires — Secret Agent house numbers research, 19,500 sales)

• 2013 — ‘Walk this way for a premium’ (Nathan Mawby, cover story — Secret Agent walkability research)

• 15 February 2014 — ‘Smart Buying’ / ‘Top property apps’ (Nicole Engwirda, cover story — Paul Osborne cover image and lead voice)

• 26 April 2014 — ‘Downsizing on the up’ (cover story — Paul Osborne on baby boomers)

• 5 June 2014 — ‘Are you getting the real picture?’ (Michelle Hele and Nathan Mawby — Secret Agent underquoting research, 324 auctions)

• Mid-2014 — ‘Market goes hot and cold’ (Nathan Mawby — Paul Osborne on mixed signals)

• 2015 — School zones feature (Paul Osborne on school zones and Asian buyer preferences)

• February 2015 — Auction wrap (Paul Osborne on Carlton North result)

• 25 December 2015 — ‘Property experts forecast a buyer’s market’ (Samantha Landy — multi-expert forecast)

• 8 February 2016 — ‘Hip suburbs’ (Samantha Landy — Paul Osborne on the gentrification cycle)

• 17 June 2016 — ‘Young people buying off-the-plan face being “submerged” financially’ (Samantha Landy and John Masanauskas)

• 19 June 2016 — ‘Two government policies expected to create “tug of war” effect’ (Samantha Landy — Secret Agent report cited)

• 26 June 2016 — ‘Homes zoned for Melbourne’s most sought-after public schools fetching up to $600k more’ (Samantha Landy)

• 30 July 2016 — ‘How to pick the next Melbourne suburb set for gentrification’ (Jordan Marshall — Paul Osborne on indicators)

• 13 August 2016 — ‘“Bridesmaid” suburbs’ (Jordan Marshall — a Secret Agent researcher quoted)

• 26 August 2016 — ‘Why a single Metro station away can mean a $950,000 price difference’ (Samantha Landy — secondary reference)

• 3 September 2016 — ‘Mystery buyer pays $360,000 above reserve’ (Scott Carbines and Jordan Marshall — a Secret Agent team member quoted)

• 28 September 2016 — ‘One bed the choice size for Melbourne apartment developers’ (Samantha Landy — Secret Agent report)

• 28 October 2016 — ‘Small, one-bedroom apartments could cause drain’ (Scott Carbines — Secret Agent capital growth index)

• 21 March 2017 — ‘Overseas investors’ gaze shifts from CBD to suburbs’ (Olga Galacho — Paul Osborne dissents)

• 26 August 2017 — ‘What to consider before making the decision to downsize’ (Jordan Marshall — Jodie Walker quoted)

Australian Property Investor

• July 2013 — ‘Planning Melbourne’s future’ (Julian Faelli quoted)

• Late 2013 — Paul Osborne by-lined article

• May 2014 — Paul Osborne by-lined article

• May 2016 — Pull quote feature (Paul Osborne)

Your Investment Property

• Mid-2015 — Phil McCarroll feature (Paul Osborne quoted)

Property Observer

• May 2013 — Bitcoin story (syndicated from AFR)

• 27 June 2016 — ‘$2m+ sqm rates’ (homepage feature; also Guest Observer on realestate.com.au)

realestate.com.au

• 22 March 2016 — ‘Fitzroy’s true property price growth’ (Guest Observer — repeat-sales index)

• 2 May 2016 — ‘Land v location’ (Paul Thornhill — Paul Osborne quoted)

• 23 May 2016 — ‘Orientation and your home’ (Guest Observer — Paul Osborne)

• 27 June 2016 — ‘$2m+ sqm rates’ (Guest Observer)

• 1 August 2016 — ‘Bride and bridesmaid suburbs’ (Guest Observer)

• 10 January 2017 — ‘Outdoor space more valuable the smaller an apartment’ (Scott Carbines — Paul Osborne quoted)

• 12 January 2017 — ‘Archicentre welcome new apartment design rules’ (Scott Carbines — Secret Agent research cited)

• 19 January 2017 — ‘Old apartments could prove winning investments’ (Scott Carbines — Secret Agent research)

• 8 February 2017 — ‘Inner city buyers want to maximise indoor space’ (Scott Carbines — Paul Osborne quoted)

news.com.au

• 5 June 2014 — Underquoting research (syndicated from Herald Sun)

• 9 February 2016 — ‘Real estate experts predict up-and-coming suburbs’ (Olivia Lambert — Paul Osborne quoted)

• 2 March 2016 — ‘Nearly everyone who lives in the city will eventually settle in an apartment’ (Olivia Lambert)

MacroBusiness

• 23 May 2016 — Secret Agent settlement risk report (syndicated)

Smart Property Investment

• 21 December 2016 — ‘How important is a balcony to your investment?’ (Secret Agent report cited)

The Real Estate Conversation

• 24 June 2016 — ‘New student visa rules will attract foreign families’ (Secret Agent report cited)

• 20 January 2017 — ‘Old apartments more valuable than new’ (Secret Agent research basis)

• 24 February 2017 — ‘Where to from here?’ (Paul Osborne, one of six experts)

The Urban Developer

• 20 February 2017 — ‘Australia’s Property Sector: Where To From Here?’ (Paul Osborne quoted)

Real Estate Talk (podcast)

• July 2015 — Jodie Walker on congestion charge research

• 5 May 2016 — ‘Why You Can’t Trust Averages’ (Secret Agent research on repeat-sales index)

• 23 August 2016 — ‘Downsizing pros and cons’ (Jodie Walker interviewed)

3AW (radio)

• May 2015 — Paul Osborne on congestion charge research

• 15 April 2016 — Crime scene disclosure laws (Paul Osborne interviewed by Tony Jones)

7 News (television)

• May 2015 — Paul Osborne on congestion charge / transport costs

Chinese-Language Coverage

Between 2012 and 2016, Secret Agent research was translated, republished, or reported across more than twenty Chinese-language outlets, producing thirty-eight items in total. The earliest appeared in July 2012 — a rental market piece on 墨尔本租房网 — and the coverage was concentrated in 2013, when eighteen items appeared, the same year the firm’s English-language research output reached its first peak.

The most prolific outlet was 澳洲家园网, which carried at least seven items over three years. The strongest pickup chains came from the housing styles research (reproduced across four or more outlets) and the coffee shops and property values research (also four outlets). Other significant platforms included 居外网 (Juwai.com) — important for the offshore narrative, given its reach among Chinese-speaking property investors — 房天下海外房产网, 亿忆网, and 澳洲房产网.

Paul Osborne was quoted directly in the majority of items. Jodie Walker appeared twice, in early 2015. The coverage dropped to a single item in 2016 and stopped entirely after that.

The Chinese-language record matters for what it says about reach. The firm never sought this coverage. The research was published in English, and the translations were done by the outlets themselves.

The Arc

The media record tells a story in five phases.

A single profile piece appeared in 2009. In 2011 and 2012, the coverage was still sparse — two items, then six. Paul Osborne appeared as a buyer’s advocate, quoted alongside others. The relationship with the Australian Financial Review began in September 2011. By the end of 2012, coverage had appeared in The Age, the AFR, The Australian, and International Business Times Australia, but the firm was still one voice among many.

From 2013, the character of the coverage changed. Secret Agent became a research source. The monthly report, launched in October 2012, produced a steady stream of original analysis — housing styles and capital growth, street-level price variation, car parking premiums, walkability, house numbers — and journalists began to use it as primary material. The Herald Sun ran Secret Agent research as a cover story. The AFR published features built on it. The first Chinese-language translations appeared. Twenty-three items in 2013, eighteen in 2014. The firm was no longer merely being quoted for market comment, but was being used as a research source. And even then, Paul Osborne was consistently the cautious voice — the one saying conditions were still bumpy when everyone else was bullish.

By 2015 and 2016, Secret Agent operated as something closer to a research house than a property advisory firm in its public profile. The coverage peaked at more than fifty items in 2016. Jodie Walker and other team members fronted work alongside Paul Osborne. The apartment settlement risk research, which warned of $100,000-per-unit losses for off-the-plan developers, ran across the AFR, Herald Sun, and Domain. Commercial property analysis entered the coverage for the first time.

When Victoria introduced its Better Apartment Design Standards in 2017, Secret Agent research was used to test the existing stock against them. The finding — that nine of three thousand apartments would pass — was reported widely. It was an unusual position for a property advisory firm, commenting on policy rather than on the market.

In 2017, the volume dropped sharply — fifteen items, down from fifty-three. The research engine was still running, but the media amplification contracted. Coverage clustered in the first half of the year and faded in the second. Paul Osborne made explicit directional calls — plateau rather than correction — and the last piece carrying his name appeared on 10 April 2017.

Then silence. One item in January 2018, quoting a team member. Paul Osborne’s name did not appear. There was nothing after that.

The work on financial cycles became a departure from mainstream reporting. It is not research that lends itself to media coverage — the arguments are long and the timeframes are measured in decades.

Secret Agent expects to appear in the media only lightly from here. The time goes to that work and to research for clients.

Coverage spans 2009–2018. Approximately 141 English-language items across seventeen outlets. Thirty-eight Chinese-language items across more than twenty platforms. Compiled from original clippings, 2026.